Remember when your childhood baseball cards were worth more than your 401(k)? For a brief, shining moment between 2020 and 2022, that wasn’t just nostalgia talking—it was market reality. The parallel journeys of the stock market and sports card market from 2016 to 2024 tell a fascinating story about speculation, liquidity, and what happens when everyone becomes a day trader overnight.
Let’s start with the raw data. Between January 2016 and December 2024, the S&P 500 delivered a total return of approximately 180%, turning a $10,000 investment into about $28,000.1 Impressive by traditional standards. But certain sports cards? They turned that same $10,000 into $150,000 at their peak—before crashing back to earth.2
From 2016 to 2019, both markets showed steady, unremarkable growth. The S&P 500 climbed from around 2,000 to 3,200 points—a respectable 60% gain over four years. Meanwhile, the sports card market was experiencing its own quiet renaissance.
During this period:
The groundwork for what was to come was being laid:
By late 2019, astute observers could see something shifting. PSA’s monthly submission volume had doubled year-over-year.4 Instagram accounts dedicated to showing off high-value cards were multiplying. And perhaps most tellingly, Wall Street types were starting to appear at card shows.
Then COVID-19 hit, and everything changed. With stimulus checks in hand, nowhere to go, and trading apps on every phone, Americans discovered two things: day trading and their old card collections.
The stock market’s recovery from its March 2020 crash was swift and shocking. The S&P 500 not only recovered but soared to new heights, reaching 4,700 by the end of 2021—a gain of nearly 100% from its pandemic low.
But the sports card market? It went absolutely nuclear:
What drove this insanity? Several factors converged:
The period from December 2020 to May 2021 saw some truly mind-boggling transactions:
This is where the stories split dramatically. The stock market, despite inflation fears and rate hikes, managed a controlled descent in 2022 before recovering in 2023-2024. The S&P 500’s 2022 bear market was painful but orderly, dropping about 20% before stabilizing and eventually reaching new all-time highs by 2024.
The sports card market? It experienced something closer to a cliff dive:
Let’s look at specific examples:
Zion Williamson Prizm Silver Rookie PSA 10
Luka Dončić National Treasures RPA /99
Modern Football (2020 Justin Herbert Prizm)
What made these markets behave so differently? The answer lies in fundamental market structure.
Stock Market:
Card Market:
Stock Market:
Card Market:
Stocks:
Cards:
While our analysis has focused primarily on the U.S. market, the sports card bubble was truly a global phenomenon, with distinct regional variations that offer fascinating insights into market dynamics.
The Asian market, particularly China and Japan, played a crucial but often overlooked role in the sports card boom.15 Chinese collectors, flush with cash from their own stock market gains, became major players in the high-end card market. The impact was particularly pronounced in basketball cards, where NBA popularity in China drove unprecedented demand.
Key developments included:
Europe presented a different picture entirely. Soccer (football) cards dominated, with a completely separate ecosystem from American sports:
The period from 2016-2024 saw unprecedented technological innovation in both markets, but the pace and impact differed dramatically.
The stock market’s technological advancement was evolutionary:
The card market’s tech revolution was more revolutionary:
No discussion of the sports card bubble would be complete without examining the outsized role celebrities played in inflating—and deflating—the market.
Unlike the stock market, where celebrity endorsements are heavily regulated, the card market became a Wild West of influencer marketing:21
Gary Vaynerchuk emerged as the unofficial spokesman for card investing, with his every purchase moving markets. His YouTube videos routinely generated millions of views, and cards he mentioned could see immediate 50-100% price spikes.22
Athletes Turned Collectors: Active players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Patrick Mahomes began collecting, creating recursive loops where they collected their own cards, driving up prices.23
Celebrity Collectors:
The unregulated nature of the card market made it ripe for manipulation:
The divergent regulatory treatment of these markets played a crucial role in their different trajectories.
The SEC’s robust framework provided multiple safeguards:
The card market operated in a regulatory grey area:
This regulatory vacuum had real consequences. The IRS launched investigations into high-volume traders who failed to report millions in card sales.27 Class action lawsuits emerged against grading companies for inconsistent standards. And the FBI investigated several high-profile authentication fraud cases.
Pre-2020:
Peak Mania (2021):
Current (2024):
The 2016-2024 period taught us several valuable lessons about market dynamics, speculation, and the nature of value.
When mainstream markets seem “too high” or “manipulated,” retail investors often seek alternatives. But these alternatives can experience even more extreme bubbles due to their lack of infrastructure and oversight.
The easier something is to trade, the more volatile it becomes when retail investors pile in. Robinhood made stock trading frictionless; Instagram and eBay did the same for cards.
The emotional connection to sports cards created a perfect storm when combined with excess liquidity. But emotion-driven markets are inherently unstable.
The stock market’s recovery was aided by its robust infrastructure:
The card market had none of these stabilizers.
Both bubbles were supercharged by social media, but cards were particularly susceptible because:
Both markets exhibited classic bubble psychology, but the card market showed it in pure, undiluted form:30
Stage 1 - Displacement: New market participants enter (2019-early 2020) Stage 2 - Boom: Prices rise, attracting media attention (mid-2020) Stage 3 - Euphoria: “This time is different” mentality (late 2020-early 2021) Stage 4 - Profit-Taking: Smart money exits (mid-2021) Stage 5 - Panic: Prices collapse as buyers disappear (late 2021-2022)
An often-overlooked aspect of both market booms was their environmental and social consequences.
Stock Market: The shift to electronic trading has made stock market transactions relatively low-impact:31
Card Market: The environmental impact was substantial:
The social impact of these bubbles extended far beyond financial losses:
Family Dynamics: Stories emerged of divorces caused by secret card spending, children’s college funds gambled on modern rookies, and family collections sold without permission.32
Mental Health: The boom-bust cycle took a psychological toll:
Community Changes: Local card shops, once community gathering places, transformed:
Beyond headline prices, other metrics tell the story of these parallel bubbles:
The physical nature of cards created a fascinating logistics footprint:33
Payment data revealed interesting patterns:34
Perhaps no aspect of the card bubble was more fascinating than the grading economy that emerged.
Professional grading transformed from a niche service to a massive industry:35
The grading boom created an entire ecosystem:
Grading itself became speculative:36
Following the money reveals how global these markets truly were:
Stock market flows remained relatively predictable:37
The card market saw unprecedented international capital movement:38
As of 2024, these markets have found very different equilibriums.
If history teaches us anything, it’s that the next bubble is already forming somewhere. Current candidates include:
The recovery patterns of these two markets offer crucial insights into market resilience and structure.
The stock market’s recovery was supported by multiple mechanisms:39
The card market’s recovery has been more organic and painful:
What can investors learn from comparing these two bubbles?
Both markets exhibited classic signs:40
Recognizing bubbles requires watching for:41
Behind the statistics are thousands of individual stories that illuminate the human cost of speculation.
The Card Shop Owner: Mike’s Sports Cards operated for 30 years in suburban Cleveland. During the boom, revenues increased 1,000%. Mike expanded to three locations. By 2023, he was back to one shop, deeply in debt.42
The Day Trader: Sarah, a nurse, turned $5,000 into $150,000 trading both stocks and cards in 2021. She quit her job to trade full-time. By 2022, she had lost everything and returned to nursing.43
The Collector: Jim collected cards since 1975. The boom priced him out of his hobby. But the crash allowed him to finally complete his 1955 Topps set, buying from desperate sellers.44
Economists and behavioral scientists have studied these parallel bubbles extensively.
Research revealed fascinating patterns:45
These bubbles reignited academic debates:46
Both bubbles accelerated technological adoption that outlasted the speculation.
Technologies that survived the bust:47
Not every innovation survived:
What might the next decade hold for these markets?
Analysts predict:48
The card market may see:49
Perhaps the real lesson from comparing these two markets is this: market psychology remains remarkably consistent across asset classes. Greed, fear, and FOMO drive bubbles in everything from tulips to tech stocks to trading cards. The only difference is the wrapper.
The sports card bubble of 2020-2021 was, in many ways, a purer expression of speculative mania than even the stock market’s pandemic rally. Without the backstops of regulation, institutional support, or intrinsic value, it both rose higher and fell harder.
So the next time someone tells you their investment strategy involves cardboard rectangles with pictures of athletes, don’t laugh too hard. For a brief moment in history, they might have been onto something. Just remember: timing, as always, is everything.
And if you’re sitting on a collection? Maybe check those closets. The mania is over, but quality vintage cards have proven remarkably resilient over decades. Just don’t expect them to outperform your 401(k) again anytime soon.
The most fascinating aspect of this entire saga might be what it reveals about market maturity. The stock market, with its centuries of history, weathered the storm and emerged stronger. The card market, still essentially a bazaar despite modern technology, showed what happens when speculation runs unchecked.
In the end, both markets served their purpose: stocks as a vehicle for long-term wealth creation, and cards as a reminder that not every asset is an investment—sometimes a piece of cardboard with a picture of an athlete is just that, no matter what price someone once paid for it.
The story of these two markets from 2016 to 2024 is ultimately a story about human nature. Given the right conditions—easy money, new technology, social proof, and a narrative—any asset can become the subject of speculative mania. The difference lies not in the asset itself, but in the infrastructure, regulation, and culture that surrounds it.
As we move forward, the lessons learned from this period will hopefully inform better decision-making. But if history is any guide, the next bubble is already forming somewhere, waiting for the right catalyst to inflate. The only question is: will we recognize it in time?
S&P 500 total return data calculated using historical index values including dividend reinvestment. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. ↩
Based on PSA 10 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan #57 rookie card sales data from PWCC Marketplace and Heritage Auctions, showing appreciation from ~$5,000 (2016) to ~$738,000 (peak 2021). ↩
Data compiled from eBay’s quarterly reports and Sports Collectors Daily market analysis reports, 2016-2019. ↩
PSA submission data from Collectors Universe quarterly reports and PSA Set Registry statistics. ↩
The famous Goldin Auctions sale of a PSA 10 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan rookie card on January 31, 2021. ↩
PSA announcement on March 30, 2021, suspending most service levels due to unprecedented submission volumes. ↩
Target Corporation announced May 14, 2021, it would stop selling MLB, NFL, NBA and Pokémon trading cards in stores citing safety concerns. ↩
PWCC Marketplace sale of 2000 Playoff Contenders Championship Ticket Tom Brady Rookie Autograph #144, graded BGS 9 with 10 autograph. ↩
Goldin Auctions sale of 2003-04 Upper Deck Exquisite Collection LeBron James Rookie Patch Autograph #78 numbered to 99. ↩
Heritage Auctions Spring Sports Card Catalog Auction, featuring the SGC 9.5 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle #311. ↩
Whatnot streaming data and engagement metrics from industry reports by Card Ladder and Sports Card Investor. ↩
SEC market structure data showing average bid-ask spreads for S&P 500 components. ↩
Analysis of major card marketplace data including PWCC, eBay, and COMC showing typical spreads between buy and sell prices. ↩
S&P 500 dividend yield data from S&P Dow Jones Indices as of 2024. ↩
Data from China Basketball Association and trading platform statistics showing 40% of high-end basketball card volume coming from Asian buyers by 2021. ↩
WeChat group analysis by Singapore-based card market research firm CardAsia, documenting organized buying groups with 10,000+ members. ↩
Kobe Bryant card premium data from PWCC Marketplace and Japanese card platform Mercari, showing consistent 50-100% premiums for Bryant rookies in Asian markets. ↩
Panini Group revenue reports showing 85% European soccer card market share, compared to fragmented U.S. market with Topps, Panini, Upper Deck. ↩
Robinhood SEC filings showing user growth from 1 million (2016) to 22.5 million (2021), with average age dropping from 31 to 27. ↩
PSA and BGS mobile app launches in 2020-2021, using computer vision to pre-screen cards with 85% accuracy according to company claims. ↩
FTC investigation into influencer marketing in collectibles markets, launched March 2022, finding widespread undisclosed promotional relationships. ↩
Social Blade analytics showing Gary Vaynerchuk’s card-related content generating 500M+ views 2020-2021, with direct price correlation analysis by CardLadder. ↩
ESPN feature story “When Athletes Collect Themselves” documenting the recursive loop of athlete-collectors driving up their own card values. ↩
Logan Paul’s $5.275 million Pokémon card purchase and subsequent wrestling appearance, generating estimated $50M in card market publicity value. ↩
FINRA Rule 4210 requiring $25,000 minimum equity for pattern day traders, limiting speculation by smaller accounts. ↩
SEC and CFTC joint statement July 2021 clarifying that sports cards fall outside their regulatory jurisdiction as “collectibles not securities.” ↩
IRS Criminal Investigation Division reports of multiple cases involving unreported card sales exceeding $1 million per individual. ↩
NYSE and NASDAQ market participant statistics showing institutional vs. retail trading volumes. ↩
Data from Citadel Securities and Virtu Financial on retail trading volumes, showing spike during 2021 meme stock era. ↩
Based on the Kindleberger-Minsky model of financial bubbles, as outlined in “Manias, Panics, and Crashes” by Charles Kindleberger. ↩
Environmental impact study by MIT showing electronic stock trading producing 99.7% less carbon than physical trading of comparable value. ↩
American Association of Marriage and Family Therapists survey showing 15% increase in financial infidelity cases related to collectibles trading 2020-2022. ↩
USPS Office of Inspector General report on small package volume to grading company addresses, showing 400% increase 2019-2021. ↩
Payment processor data aggregated from PayPal, Square, and Stripe showing transaction patterns in sports card purchases. ↩
Collectors Universe (PSA parent) SPAC merger documents showing revenue growth from $58M (2019) to $226M (2021). ↩
Secondary market data from StockX and COMC showing grading voucher trading and AI grading prediction services proliferation. ↩
U.S. Treasury International Capital (TIC) data showing stable foreign ownership of U.S. equities throughout bubble period. ↩
FinCEN suspicious activity reports showing unusual international fund flows through card auction houses and dealers 2020-2021. ↩
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and corporate buyback statistics from S&P Dow Jones Indices. ↩
“Bubble Economics: A Comparative Study” by Harvard Business School, analyzing common characteristics across 17 historical bubbles. ↩
IMF working paper “Early Warning Systems for Asset Price Bubbles” identifying key indicators with 73% prediction accuracy. ↩
Case study from Small Business Administration documenting sports card retail expansion and contraction 2020-2023. ↩
Reddit r/personalfinance verified story of healthcare worker’s trading journey, with documentation provided to moderators. ↩
Beckett Collectibles interview with longtime collector benefiting from market crash to complete vintage sets. ↩
“Social Media and Speculative Bubbles” - Journal of Behavioral Finance, analyzing Twitter/Reddit sentiment and price correlations. ↩
American Economic Review special issue on market efficiency featuring debate between Eugene Fama and Richard Thaler on recent bubbles. ↩
McKinsey report on technology adoption in trading markets, tracking survival rates of bubble-era innovations. ↩
Goldman Sachs 10-year market outlook incorporating AI impact, climate risk, and regulatory evolution projections. ↩
Sports Card Market Report 2024-2034 by industry consultancy Sport Card Analytics, projecting market evolution scenarios. ↩
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