When Cards Outpaced Stocks: Comparing Market Bubbles from 2016-2024
An analysis of how the sports card market's meteoric rise and fall paralleled, and sometimes exceeded, the stock market's performance from 2016 to 2024.
If you’ve ever stood in the trading card aisle at Target or scrolled through an online card shop, you’ve probably felt overwhelmed by the variety of box types available. Jumbo boxes, hobby boxes, blaster boxes—what’s the difference, and more importantly, which one should you buy? Today, we’re breaking down the complete Topps product hierarchy to help you make informed decisions and maximize your collecting experience.
Before diving into specific box types, it’s important to understand how the trading card industry has evolved. In the 1980s and early 1990s, you could buy packs at any corner store, and they were all essentially the same. Today’s market is far more segmented, with different products targeting different types of collectors and budgets.
This segmentation serves multiple purposes:
Let’s break down each product type from most premium to most accessible:
What is it? Jumbo boxes are the cream of the crop in the Topps lineup. These boxes contain fewer packs than hobby boxes but each pack is loaded with significantly more cards.
Guaranteed Hits: Jumbo boxes typically guarantee the most autographs and memorabilia cards per box. For example, 2024 Topps Series 1 Jumbo boxes guarantee:
Exclusive Inserts: Many products include jumbo-exclusive insert sets or parallels you can’t find in other formats.
Better Odds: The ratios for pulling rare cards are generally better in jumbo boxes. If a particular insert falls 1:100 packs in hobby, it might be 1:75 in jumbo.
What is it? Hobby boxes are the traditional backbone of the collecting world. These are what you’ll find at your local card shop (LCS) and what most serious collectors consider the “standard” product.
Hobby-Exclusive Cards: Most Topps products include parallels, inserts, or autograph sets that can ONLY be found in hobby boxes. These might include:
Guaranteed Content: While not as loaded as jumbo boxes, hobby boxes still guarantee certain hits:
Traditional Experience: Opening a hobby box provides the classic pack-ripping experience that many collectors love.
What is it? These boxes look similar to hobby boxes but are designed for mass retail. They’re often found at big box stores during the initial release period.
Retail-Exclusive Parallels: Some products include retail-only parallel colors or insert sets.
Price Point: Generally 30-40% cheaper than hobby boxes.
Accessibility: No need to find a card shop—just head to Target (if you can beat the flippers).
What is it? Blaster boxes are the most common sealed product you’ll find at retail stores. They’re designed to be an affordable entry point into the hobby.
Exclusive Content: Many blaster boxes include:
Price Point: At $20-$30 for most products, blasters are an affordable way to rip packs.
Availability: These are what you’re most likely to find on retail shelves.
What is it? Hanger boxes are designed to hang on retail pegs, making them perfect for checkout lanes and impulse purchases.
Convenience: Easy to grab and go, perfect for testing a new product.
Exclusive Parallels: Some products include hanger-only parallel colors (often yellow or orange).
Price: The lowest barrier to entry for sealed products.
Let’s break down how these products compare across key metrics:
Product Type | Price Range | Cards per $ | Hit Odds | Exclusives | Availability |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jumbo | $150-500+ | 1-3 | Excellent | Many | Hobby only |
Hobby | $70-250 | 2-4 | Good | Many | Hobby only |
Retail 24 | $40-100 | 3-5 | Fair | Some | Mass retail |
Blaster | $20-40 | 2-4 | Poor | Some | Mass retail |
Hanger | $10-20 | 3-5 | Very Poor | Few | Mass retail |
One crucial aspect of choosing between box types is understanding how odds work:
When Topps says an autograph falls “1:100 packs,” this is an average across the entire print run. Your individual box might have zero autographs or multiple. However, certain patterns emerge:
Case Hits: Some cards are designed to appear once per case. In a hobby case of 12 boxes, one box will contain this card. Buying a full jumbo case (6-8 boxes) gives you better odds of hitting these.
Hot Boxes: Occasionally, boxes are loaded with hits far exceeding the stated odds. This is intentional to create excitement but completely random.
Retail Disadvantage: Retail products often have worse odds because they’re printed in much larger quantities and lack the guaranteed hits of hobby products.
Understanding box types also means understanding their resale dynamics:
Hobby and Jumbo boxes tend to appreciate over time if kept sealed, especially for popular rookies or limited print runs.
Retail products rarely appreciate significantly unless they contain exclusive rookies that become stars.
Hobby-exclusive cards often command premiums on the secondary market.
Retail-exclusive parallels can be valuable due to their limited distribution windows.
Here’s how to decide which product type fits your collecting style:
Different Topps products may vary from these general guidelines:
Sometimes the smartest move is not buying boxes at all:
Singles Market: If you’re chasing specific players, buying singles is almost always cheaper than ripping boxes.
Group Breaks: Joining breaks lets you buy specific teams at a fraction of box costs.
Market Timing: Box prices fluctuate. Buying during the off-season or when hype dies down saves money.
Buying a full case ensures you get the proper distribution of hits and reduces variance.
Some collectors profit by finding underpriced retail at big box stores and reselling.
Sealed wax from rookie years of stars appreciates significantly over time.
Focusing on retail exclusives to complete rainbow sets of specific players.
Understanding why we gravitate toward certain products:
Jumbo boxes appeal to our desire for the best—the premium experience.
Hobby boxes satisfy the traditional collector’s need for authenticity and exclusivity.
Blaster boxes trigger impulse buying with their accessibility and price point.
The thrill of the hunt drives many to seek retail in stores rather than buying online.
The trading card industry continues to evolve:
QR codes and digital parallels are creating new product categories.
Topps is experimenting with online-exclusive products.
Monthly box services are gaining popularity.
Sustainable packaging may reshape how products are configured.
The beauty of the modern trading card market is that there’s a product for every collector, budget, and goal. Whether you’re ripping $20 blasters with your kids or investing in $500 jumbo boxes, the joy of the hobby remains the same: the anticipation of what’s inside that next pack.
The key is understanding what each product offers and aligning your purchases with your collecting goals. Want the best odds at a rookie autograph? Go jumbo. Building a set on a budget? Retail 24-packs might be perfect. Just getting started? Grab a blaster and see what the excitement is about.
Remember, the “best” box is the one that brings you joy and fits your budget. The hobby is meant to be fun—don’t let the complexity of product types overwhelm that simple truth.
Happy collecting, and may your next box contain exactly what you’re chasing!
What’s your preferred Topps product type? Share your best pulls and worst breaks in the comments below!